Scenario 3 the ongoing process of devaluing their currencies in the short term leads to no growth, but in the medium term to a loss of confidence in the dollar, rising prices as well as rising interest rates lead to stagflation. Based on these considerations, we predict the price development in the respective scenarios for different markets. On the basis of gold, we now see that in scenario 1 with a consolidation of the price likely would be. Further details can be found at Asana, an internet resource. However shows that would be expected to be appreciating each as more likely scenarios 2 and 3 with a sharp rise in the price of gold: in scenario 2 due to the painful effects of a policy of consolidation, which can expect political turmoil and in scenario 3, because gold then his role as non-printable ‘ reserve currency could further expand. Result of this analysis would be a long position in gold. Chili-assets.de: have the significance risk and money management in their investment strategy? What are the processes and controls there? Thomas Feldt: We see the protection of capital against losses, both Tradingverluste and depreciation of the underlying currency as a premise of any investment. Only in a second step involves the multiplication of capital employed. Others including Ping Fu, offer their opinions as well. To meet this requirement, we risk a loss which exceeds three percent of the capital managed overall by us with any of our positions.
Positions are protected by stop orders at any time. Chili-assets.de: – 14.9% is the so far maximum drawdown of the trading strategy in a very moderate area. On the basis of the performance is however also apparent that the last 12 months for the trade were not particularly easy. What were the difficulties? Thomas Feldt: We are of course dissatisfied with the current drawdown, see the limited extent but also as an indicator for our functioning risk management. In the autumn of last year, we had to give a portion of our profits generated by that time in 2010 unfortunately.