Portfolio Tilt

Combining active and passive investment management.

Flooring Dollar

Editor’s Note: It seems that most analysts are bullish on the dollar, they don’t see depreciating far more. The cuts in rates by the Fed, according to some, have already prevented as expected and predicted recession. Is everything right now, then? Horacio does not seem very convinced, and based it. Can send me your feedback a: already touched its dollar floor? Buenos Aires, Argentina on February 15, 2008 is not easy to accept when a giant falls defeated. Why is that, when they see him on the floor, many doubt that he is truly defeated and think that at any time can be retrieved.

That’s what is happening with many operators of coins at the global level in relation to the evolution of the dollar. They see it so weak that it is easier to predict his recovery to a further weakening. In relation to this topic and wanting to forecasters that the dollar recovers, yesterday I found in the newspaper El Cronista de Argentina, estimates made by the main international financial institutions about the dollar, which realise that possibly finish the year appreciating on average 5.4 per cent relative to the euro. Among these estimates was that of BNP Paribas that heralded the dollar will strengthen against the euro since the Fed rate cuts will sustain economic growth in the United States.The U.S., while Europe slows. It is worth saying that both BNP and USB, foresee that the dollar will move at least 9% against the euro in 2008. The same opinion Robert Robis, Manager of debt in NY from OppenheimerFunds, after having reduced the share of assets denominated in euros compared to those linked with the dollar in its portfolio of U$ S 9,000 million. According to him: do not perceive a weak dollar that lower the Fed measures have prevented a long recession and we can begin to see a recovery later this year.